ClicksThe new energy security strategy of "Four Revolutions, One Cooperation" is a concrete manifestation of Xi Jinping’s thoughts on socialism with Chinese characteristics in the new era in the energy field, and provides a fundamental follow for the high-quality development of energy and power. During the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period, my country's electric power industry has overcome difficulties, continued to innovate, and achieved a huge leap to meet the power demand for economic and social development. The development of the electric power industry presents new characteristics, laying the foundation for the high-quality development of the power industry. The "14th Five-Year Plan" is a crucial period for our country to move from building a well-off society in all respects to basically realizing socialist modernization. The preparation and implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" is of great significance.
1. The development of the power industry presents new characteristics
The power installation structure continues to develop towards clean and low-carbon. On the one hand, the development of non-fossil energy has entered a large-scale "incremental replacement" stage. In 2018, half of the world's new non-fossil energy installed capacity will be in China. As of the end of 2018, the installed capacity of non-fossil energy power generation reached 770 million kilowatts, accounting for 40.8% of the total installed capacity; the power generation capacity was 2.16 trillion kilowatt-hours, accounting for 30.9% of the full-caliber power generation, an increase of 6 units from 2015. Percentage points, 3.7 percentage points. On the other hand, the proportion of large-capacity, high-parameter, energy-saving and environmentally-friendly thermal power units in China has increased significantly. As of the end of 2018, the country’s single-unit thermal power units of 600,000 kilowatts and above accounted for 44.8%; further strengthened energy conservation and emission reduction transformation efforts. By the end of 2018, Coal-fired power generating units that have reached the ultra-low emission limit are about 810 million kilowatts, and the emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides and soot per unit of thermal power generation have been reduced to 0.20 grams, 0.19 grams, and 0.04 grams, respectively, to promote the release of high-quality coal power production capacity; coal-fired power generation The efficiency has been greatly improved, and the average coal consumption of thermal power supply has dropped to 308 g/kWh, which is a reduction of 60 g/kWh compared with 2006, a decrease of 16%.
The level of electrification of terminal energy consumption continues to increase. In 2018, electric energy accounted for 25.5% of final energy consumption, an increase of 4.2 percentage points compared with 2010; from 2016 to 2018, a total of 392.3 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity were replaced, and the trend was increasing year by year. With the continuous increase in the implementation of electric energy substitution, the electrification level in key areas such as industrial manufacturing, transportation, residents' life, and construction will increase steadily. Especially with the rapid development of electric vehicles, the electrification of the transportation field will be fully accelerated.
Digital intelligent technology is gradually integrated into the power system, and the flexibility of the system is continuously enhanced. Electric power companies are actively promoting the integration of the new generation of information technology and digital technology achievements and industry. Among the first 55 energy Internet demonstration projects in the country, 14 projects have passed the acceptance; State Grid Corporation proposed to create "Ubiquitous Power Internet of Things", in the source The network load storage ubiquitous has actively explored and achieved outstanding results in dispatch control, online business processing, modern smart supply chain, comprehensive demonstration area construction, etc.; power generation enterprises actively promoted the flexibility of coal power transformation work, Huaneng Dandong Power Plant 2×350,000 kW generating units The minimum technical output reached 20%, and the minimum technical output of the 2×600,000-kilowatt unit of the National Energy Group Zhuanghe Power Plant reached 30%, reaching the international advanced level; since the industrial power demand side management was launched in 2016, it has saved 30 million in total power investment Kilowatts, shifting the peak load of more than 4 million kilowatts in summer and winter, reducing the cost of electricity for enterprises by more than 150 billion yuan.
International cooperation in energy and power is an important foundation and support for the "Belt and Road" initiative. Investment and trade in energy and power infrastructure between China and countries along the route are on the rise. From 2013 to 2018, China’s major power companies participated in the "Belt and Road" international cooperation and completed a total of 10.7 billion US dollars in investment and signed 622 power engineering contracting contracts with a total amount of money US$116.7 billion; various power companies continue to promote the establishment of an international capacity cooperation model that "goes out" in all aspects of technology, standards, equipment, and management; the concept of the global energy Internet has been widely recognized and has been included in the "Belt and Road" construction and the United Nations "2030 Agenda" And promote the implementation of the "Paris Agreement" framework, and propose solutions to promote the coordinated development of international energy, power and economic, social environment; China-Pakistan Economic Corridor power cooperation is getting closer, the level of cooperation between China and ASEAN countries continues to increase, China, Russia, China and Northeast China The Asian international power capacity cooperation is progressing steadily.
The reform of the electric power system is progressing steadily. The proportion of market-oriented transactions has increased significantly. In the first 10 months of 2019, the national market transaction power reached 2.2 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 30%; 31 power trading institutions across the country have registered more than 100,000 market entities; 8 power spot markets All pilot projects have started settlement trial operation; the reform of incremental power distribution business has been accelerated. At present, more than 40% of the approved pilot projects have established owners, and more than 60 pilot projects have been put into operation; the electricity price reform is in the second regulatory cycle The supervision and review of the cost of transmission and distribution prices has been initiated, and the issue of electricity pricing mechanisms such as cross-subsidy has begun to be gradually cleared.
2. "The 14th Five-Year Plan" power development related issues
There is a large room for growth in electricity demand. my country's economy is generally in the middle and late stages of industrialization and the rapid progress of urbanization, which determines the continuous rigid growth of electricity demand. The transformation of energy production and consumption methods centered on electricity is an inevitable requirement for the development of clean energy and the inevitable result of clean replacement. It determines that my country's electricity demand is still in a relatively long period of growth and has greater room for growth. The main factors affecting the growth of electricity demand during the "14th Five-Year Plan" include the following five aspects: First, the conversion of new and old kinetic energy, the decline in the growth rate of the traditional electricity industry, and the high-tech and equipment manufacturing industry and modern service industry will become the main drivers of the electricity consumption growth. Strength; the second is the construction of new urbanization, which will promote rigid growth in electricity demand. In the future, the proportion of electricity in the western region will increase, and the eastern and central regions will still be the center of gravity of China’s electricity load. The third is the development of energy transformation, showing a clear trend of electrification. The potential for electric energy substitution is huge; fourth, the in-depth advancement of the energy consumption revolution, the upgrading of industrial structure and technological innovation, and many other factors will restrain the growth of electricity consumption to a certain extent; the fifth is the implementation of the ubiquitous power Internet of Things strategy, in terms of power demand response management , It can realize that the load growth rate is lower than the electricity growth rate, bringing huge economic and social benefits.
Using output value unit consumption method, electricity elasticity coefficient method, per capita electricity consumption method and other forecasting methods to analyze and forecast my country's medium and long-term electricity demand, it is estimated that my country's entire society's electricity consumption will reach 9.2~9.5 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2025. The average annual growth rate during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is about 4.0% to 4.5%. In 2035, the electricity consumption of the whole society will be about 12 trillion kwh, and the average annual growth rate will be about 3% from 2020 to 2035, which will gradually transition to the saturation stage of electricity consumption growth.
The clean and low-carbon power structure is further improved. Taking into account the economic and social development, electricity structure and demand side management of various regions in my country, based on the maturity of energy storage technology, it is estimated that the total installed power capacity will reach 2.7 billion kilowatts in 2025, and the proportion of non-fossil energy power generation capacity will reach 48%. The power generation accounted for 37%. In 2035, the installed power generation capacity will reach 3.8 billion kilowatts, and the power generation capacity of non-fossil energy will surpass that of fossil energy.
New energy continues to develop rapidly, and the problem of digestion should be taken seriously. The advancement of new energy technology is accelerating, and the cost has dropped significantly. In the past five years, the cost of wind power development and utilization has dropped by about 30%, and the price of photovoltaic modules has dropped by about half. It is estimated that provinces with superior resources can achieve parity on the Internet as soon as 2020. In the future, new energy will continue to develop rapidly. It is estimated that in 2025, the total installed capacity of wind power and solar power will reach 700 million kilowatts, and the proportion of power generation will be close to 15%, and some provinces will exceed 30%.
While my country’s rapid development of new energy, the curtailment rate of wind was as high as 17.2%, and the curtailment rate of light was 13.0%. In recent years, a series of measures have been taken to effectively alleviate the problem of abandonment. However, in provinces with a high proportion of new energy power generation, the consumption problem is still more prominent. For example, in 2018, Gansu and Xinjiang's new energy power generation accounted for only 20% and 15%, and the wind curtailment rate was as high as 19% and 23%. The abandonment rate is 10% and 16% respectively. In the future, with the larger-scale development of new energy, the problem of digestion should arouse great attention. Solving the problem of new energy consumption involves multiple aspects such as power supply, power grid, users, policies, and technology, and requires multiple measures to improve system regulation and absorption capabilities. In the near future, on the power supply side, flexible reforms of coal power can be implemented, and various flexible power supplies such as pumped storage power stations and natural gas peak-regulating power stations can be constructed to improve system regulation capabilities. Build cross-regional power transmission channels on the grid side, improve the regional main grid and smart distribution network construction, use the power grid basic platform to implement multi-energy complementation and joint intelligent dispatch of cooling, heating, and electricity, and make full use of inter-provincial regulation resources. Strengthen demand-side management on the user side, implement peak and valley time-of-use electricity prices, develop various flexible power loads and smart appliances, and realize peak shifting and valley filling. In terms of market mechanisms, establish a renewable energy target guidance system, improve auxiliary service compensation mechanisms, start a green certificate transaction mechanism, and adopt power generation rights transactions and inter-provincial market transactions. In the long run, it will further strengthen the R&D and application of large-capacity, high-efficiency, low-cost, and long-life energy storage technologies, and make full use of the charging and discharging functions of electric vehicles to enhance system regulation capabilities.
Promote the safe and efficient development of nuclear power and effectively replace the installed capacity of coal power. Compared with new energy and coal power, nuclear power has comparative advantages. Economically, the on-grid power price of some nuclear power has been lower than the local benchmark price of desulfurized coal power, and also lower than the current cost of new energy and energy storage. In terms of power generation characteristics, nuclear power has high energy density and stable output, which can bear the basic load alone, which is effective Replacing coal-fired power installations is helpful to the stability of the system; in terms of environmental protection, nuclear power does not emit carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, and does not emit harmful gases such as sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and pollutants such as dust. According to the current situation of nuclear power construction, the installed nuclear power capacity will be approximately 53 million kilowatts by 2020. In order to effectively control the installed capacity of coal power, we estimate that the installed nuclear power capacity will reach 0.89 and 137 million kilowatts in 2025 and 2030, respectively, and 6 to 8 nuclear power units will be put into operation each year.
In order to ensure the safe and efficient development of nuclear power and to establish nuclear power brand advantages, the first proposal is to establish a strategic position of nuclear power and maintain the pace of nuclear power construction. In accordance with the country’s two hundred-year development goals, we will study the strategic plan for nuclear power development in the new era, organize the formulation of the "Overall Development Strategy for Nuclear Power in 2035", and determine development goals at various stages. Continue to strengthen independent research and development and innovation, and further enhance the ability of independent development. The second is to increase nuclear power support and improve related supporting policies. Provide financial policy support for nuclear power companies, and promote the post-requisition of nuclear power special construction funds and spent fuel disposal funds. Pricing is based on the principle of cost plus reasonable profit, ensuring priority for nuclear power to go online, focusing on baseload operation, and improving utilization efficiency. The third is to cultivate an excellent nuclear safety culture and establish a sound nuclear power standard system. Innovate the public communication mode, strengthen the popularization of nuclear power science, improve the national nuclear science literacy, and eliminate the public's nuclear fear. Strengthen nuclear power standardization, integrate domestic superior resources, form industrial alliances in external promotion and brand building, establish nuclear power "international teams", and further enhance the ability to "go global".
Coordinate and implement policies to promote the high-quality development of Southwest Hydropower. The three provinces (regions) of Sichuan, Yunnan, and Tibet are extremely rich in hydropower resources. The current development rate is less than 38%. Compared with developed countries, there is still much room for development.
In recent years, the development of the hydropower industry has faced great pressure on ecological and environmental protection, high difficulty in resettlement, and continuous increase in economic burden and construction costs. For this reason, it is recommended to strengthen unified planning and overall coordination to realize the consumption of hydropower on a larger scale; strengthen the overall planning and construction of hydropower basins to improve the overall benefits of the basin; strengthen immigration management and effectively implement hydropower resettlement; improve hydropower tax and fee policies to promote The healthy development of hydropower enterprises; increase financial policy support to accelerate the construction of hydropower in Southwest China. It is estimated that by 2025, conventional hydropower installed capacity will reach 400 million kilowatts, of which Southwest Hydropower will account for more than 90% of the country’s new capacity.
The role of coal power in the system will be transformed into a power source with electricity and power regulation. my country's coal-based resource endowment and coal power is the best way to use coal in a clean, efficient, economical and convenient way, which determines that coal power will still play an important role in my country's energy and power system for a certain period of time. In order to support larger-scale new energy consumption and system operation, coal-fired power generating units need to provide more system adjustment services and undertake more system peak shaving, frequency adjustment, voltage adjustment and backup functions. Its market positioning will be traditionally provided by electricity The main power supply is gradually transformed into a regulated power supply that provides reliable capacity, power and flexibility.
In the future, coal-fired power still has a certain amount of room for development. The development space of coal power must satisfy both power balance and power balance. From the perspective of power balance, the current utilization hours of coal power are only about 4,300 hours, while the utilization hours of coal power units themselves can reach 5000 hours or even higher. There is a large potential for power growth. Considering other new power sources, you can No new coal power projects are arranged; from the perspective of power balance, the effective capacity of new energy power generation is low. In order to meet the power balance requirements, it is necessary to build a certain scale of thermal power (coal power) installed capacity to "understand the supply". We predict that coal-fired power installed capacity can be controlled within 1.2 to 1.25 billion kilowatts in 2025, and will reach a peak in 2030.
Energy green and low-carbon transition is not simply "de-coalization". The increase in coal-fired power capacity does not mean an increase in carbon emissions. One is to implement electric energy substitution and optimize energy use. At present, there are still about 700 million tons of coal that is directly burned in my country for heating or providing heat load, and coal is burned for power generation, and carbon emissions have not increased. The second is to reduce the coal consumption of coal-fired power plants through technological innovation. The third is to serve new energy power generation and transform the use of coal power. Coal power "gave way" for new energy power generation. The utilization hours have dropped from 5,030 hours in 2010 to the current 4,300 hours, a decrease of 15%. With the large-scale development of new energy, the utilization hours of coal power will further decline. The carbon emissions of coal-fired power plants are showing a clear downward trend. Calculation and analysis show that coal-fired power carbon emissions have basically entered a plateau period, and will reach a peak in 2025, and then will accelerate decline.
From the supply side and the consumption side to jointly improve the comprehensive adjustment capabilities of the system. my country's pumped storage, gas-fired power generation and other flexibly regulated power sources account for less than 6% of the installed capacity, and less than 3% in the "Three North" areas where new energy is rich, and the regulation capacity is inherently insufficient. However, pumped-storage power stations are limited by site resources and construction period, gas and electricity are limited by gas source and gas prices, and energy storage is limited by economic safety. They do not have the conditions for large-scale construction. The flexible transformation of coal power can improve the system's adjustment ability. Realistic choice. Operational experience at home and abroad shows that the technology for flexible transformation of coal power is mature; economically, the cost of increasing the peak shaving capacity per kilowatt is about 500 to 1500 yuan, which has comparative advantages over pumped storage, gas power, and energy storage. . At present, the overall completion of the flexibility transformation is still far from the "13th Five-Year Plan" target. Compensation policies for ancillary services in Northeast China have strong incentives and a high degree of completion; Northwest and North China have less completed. To promote the flexible transformation of coal power, one is to increase the compensation for auxiliary services. In 2018, my country's ancillary service compensation fee only accounted for 0.83% of the total on-grid electricity fee, which is much lower than 2.5% in the US PJM market and 8% in the UK. The second is to improve the compensation policy, comprehensively consider the increased transformation costs, operation and maintenance costs, and lost opportunity costs of enterprises to effectively ensure that coal power projects obtain reasonable benefits and stimulate coal power companies' enthusiasm for flexible transformation. The third is to strengthen planning and guidance, and orderly arrange flexible coal power transformation projects. Focus on the flexible transformation of coal-fired power generating units of 300,000 kilowatts and below, as the main unit for deep peak shaving, and even participate in start-stop peak shaving. For the "Three North" areas where the consumption of new energy is difficult, and areas with limited nuclear power output, some 600,000 kilowatt subcritical coal-fired power generating units may be considered for deep peak shaving. The fourth is to give play to the role of the market mechanism, introduce capacity electricity prices in due course, and expand flexible trading varieties.
Without positive changes on the consumer side, there will be no high-quality development of energy. Demand-side management must be strengthened and user-side flexibility must be enhanced. By guiding users to use less electricity during peak hours and more electricity during low valleys, peak shaving and valley shifting, peak shifting and flattening can be realized, thereby reducing system peak shaving requirements and reducing electricity costs. Taking Shandong Province's electricity load in 2018 as an example, more than 95% of the province's peak load is about 4 million kilowatts, and the cumulative duration is about 147 hours. Reducing peak load through demand-side management can not only reduce the installed power capacity by 5 million kilowatts, delay the total investment in power plants and power grids by about 40 billion yuan, but also change the load characteristics of the power grid, reduce the peak-to-valley difference, and reduce peak shaving on the user side. Demand, so that the regulation capacity of the power generation side can better meet the new energy consumption requirements.
To strengthen demand-side management, it is necessary to give full play to the advantages of information systems, strengthen the construction of smart grid system platforms, the cultivation of power service industries, and the ubiquitous power Internet of Things, "Internet +" smart energy demonstration, electric vehicle charging and discharging services, and electric energy substitution. Close integration and continuously deepen the connotation and extension of power demand side management. The peak-valley time-of-use price policy is an effective means of power demand side management. It is necessary to further expand the scope of implementation of the time-of-use price and determine a scientific and reasonable peak-valley time-of-use price ratio.
Deepen the reform of the electricity market and promote the formation of a scientific electricity price mechanism. Accelerate the construction of a national power market and break down barriers between provinces and market segmentation. Combining with the electricity price reform process, properly solve the problem of electricity price cross-subsidy, reduce the government fund and the additional proportion in the electricity price, and restore the electricity commodity attribute. Promote the incremental power distribution reform pilot program steadily, and promote the coordinated development and safe operation of the power transmission and distribution network. Coordinate and promote the in-depth integration of the power market and the carbon trading market, give full play to the market's advantages in efficient allocation of resources, clarify hard constraints on carbon dioxide emissions from power companies, and force the optimization of power structure through carbon constraints, improve power generation structure, increase power generation efficiency, and tap room for emission reduction.
Strengthen the evaluation of high-quality power development indicators. In order to implement the new energy security strategy, the China Electricity Council follows the national requirements for building a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system, and researches and proposes high-quality development goals for the power industry. The main ones are: by 2025, the proportion of electricity in the final energy consumption will reach 29.5 %, non-fossil energy accounts for about 48% of installed capacity, non-fossil energy accounts for about 37% of power generation, and non-fossil energy accounts for about 19.5% of energy consumption; comprehensive carbon emission intensity is 402 g/kWh, and comprehensive coal consumption for power generation 165 grams of standard coal/kWh; CO2 emissions per unit of thermal power generation are 830 g/kWh, SO2 and NOx emissions per unit of coal power generation are 0.12 g/kWh and 0.16 g/kWh; gradually form 3% The ability to respond to peak loads.
The high-quality development of energy and power involves a wide range and high requirements. It is recommended that relevant departments strengthen the top-level design, improve and introduce as soon as possible an evaluation index system that reflects the characteristics of safety, green, high efficiency, innovation, openness, and sharing, and make full use of modern information technology to consolidate statistical information Basic, goal-oriented regular evaluation and assessment.
