ClicksNote: The preparation of the "14th Five-Year" energy plan is imminent. The National Energy Administration organized a written survey of authoritative experts in the energy field around the key issues of the "14th Five-Year" energy plan. Professor Ming Zeng, Director of the Energy Internet Research Center of North China Electric Power University was invited as the invited One of the main experts answered 18 key questions in six aspects related to energy planning during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. Based on the idea of opening the door for planning, the following will sort out Professor Zeng Ming's answers to the key questions of the "14th Five-Year" energy plan for reference and exchanges by experts and scholars in the energy field.
The following is Professor Zeng Ming’s answers to the 18 key questions of the "14th Five-Year" energy plan, organized as follows:
01 About the "14th Five-Year" energy development 1. Standing at a new historical starting point, how do you view the positioning of the "14th Five-Year" energy industry in the national economic and social development? What new missions does the energy industry face during the 14th Five-Year Plan? What landmark results should the new "Four Revolutions, One Cooperation" energy security strategy achieve during the "14th Five-Year Plan"? In the midst of major changes unseen in a century, what are the major changes facing domestic and international energy development during the 14th Five-Year Plan? During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the new energy security strategy of "Four Revolutions, One Cooperation" must be implemented. In terms of energy supply, to achieve multi-energy complementarity, it should be the overall optimization of the system and the supply of multiple energy complements; in the field of energy consumption, it should focus on improving energy efficiency and use market-oriented, diversified, intelligent, and customized means , So that users can get more low-cost energy, and reduce the negative impact of various energy use on the environment; in terms of energy system reform, during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, it must be a real, major and substantial To promote the reform of the energy system; in terms of energy technology innovation, focusing on the current integration of information technology and various technologies in the energy field, and in the general direction of information technology to promote energy technology, substantial results must be achieved; for international cooperation in the energy field , In terms of energy interconnection, there must be more significant substantive progress. In the face of major changes unseen in a century, a large proportion of clean energy will be adopted internationally, the proportion of traditional energy will be lower and lower, and energy efficiency will be greatly improved. Countries will attach great importance to energy security. In China, the energy supply side pays more attention to multi-energy complementarity, and the phenomenon of separate supply of various energy sources and low levels of complementarity will be improved. On the energy demand side, users’ demand for integrated energy services will continue to increase, that is, multiple energy sources are integrated and integrated to provide users with services. Only in this way can the operating efficiency of the entire energy system be continuously improved. Reduce the negative impact of energy consumption and production capacity on the environment, and make energy greener, lower-carbon, more efficient and safer. 2. What are the shortcomings or outstanding problems in the energy development, energy distribution and flow direction of the "13th Five-Year Plan"? What is the focus of the "14th Five-Year" comprehensive energy plan and the sub-field (coal, oil, gas, electricity, new energy) plan in resolving the above-mentioned contradictions and making up for shortcomings? During the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period, energy distribution and flow are mainly power transmission from west to east and gas transmission from west to east. Coal is also transported in large quantities from the northwest to the central and southeast regions, which is in line with the energy supply and demand situation during the 13th Five-Year Plan. Looking at the last year of the "13th Five-Year Plan", one of the shortcomings is the continuous reduction of my country's dependence on large-scale energy transfers such as power transmission from the West to the East, which must be overcome during the "14th Five-Year" energy plan. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, on the one hand, we must continue to attach importance to some large energy bases, and on the other hand, we must also pay attention to the on-site development and use of various energy sources such as decentralized energy in the central and eastern regions. At the same time, we must also pay attention to improving the comprehensive utilization efficiency of energy, electricity and other energy consumption on the energy demand side. Paying attention to the role of demand response resources in adjusting the overall energy supply and demand matching, and including demand response resources as an important resource in the plan is a problem that must be seriously considered during the "14th Five-Year Plan". At the same time, we must pay attention to comprehensive energy planning, and the planning of multiple energy sources should consider how to coordinate and complement each other, comprehensively optimize, and comprehensively plan. 3. How to coordinate the development of coal, oil, gas, electricity, and new energy in the "14th Five-Year" energy plan? How to make better use of the synergy and optimization of the energy system? In addition to indicator constraints such as total volume and structure, what are the principled requirements or boundary conditions for energy project scale and layout, energy flow optimization, and distribution channel layout? How to coordinate and optimize the development of coal, oil, gas, electricity, new energy, etc., there are the following problems: first, the system problem, the current system is independent of each other, and the system is not smooth; second, the mechanism problem, the regulatory mechanism problem, The lack of control mechanisms for various energy systems; the third is policy support; some are technical support, and the coordination of multiple energy sources requires technical platform support; in addition, the price signals of multiple energy sources in the market cannot promote the coordinated development of multiple energy sources . In future market construction, it is necessary to explore the possibility of multiple energy varieties trading in the same market. The prices of various energy sources can be converted through a medium to form a price signal with common medium conversion that all kinds of users can see and compare with each other. This is also an important issue for the coordination and optimization of multiple energy sources in large systems.
02 About the "14th Five-Year" energy transition 1. How to reasonably grasp the pace of the future energy transition? Clarify the direction and path of the energy transition in the 14th Five-Year Plan period and the positioning of various energy varieties in the system. How to coordinate the relationship between the energy transition and the smooth transition of traditional industries? Under China's national conditions, the energy transition is a gradual process, a process, not a sudden change. In the entire transition process, we must pay special attention to the complementarity of multiple energy sources, rather than separation, such as clean energy, or the proportion of non-aqueous renewable energy represented by wind and solar energy within a few years, must stand in the integrated energy system , Considering from the perspective of multi-energy complementarity, promote the gradual transition of the energy system to a clean, green, and low-carbon energy system. In the integrated energy system, traditional energy sources such as coal power and other fossil energy need to pay attention to complementation with wind power, photovoltaic power generation and other renewable energy sources, and promote the gradual increase of the proportion of renewable energy in order to reduce wind and solar abandonment, which is safer, more efficient, and more efficient. New energy for economic development. The specific path is to study how to complement traditional fossil energy power generation in places with rich wind and solar resources (such as Northwest China), places with rich water resources (such as Southwest China) and other places rich in renewable energy. Make plans and plans when the overall energy supply system is optimized, and gradually expand the supply side. The second path, after wind, solar and other renewable energy are packaged with traditional energy, various energy storage technologies can be considered, including how to store energy on the power generation side, how to store energy on the grid side, and how to store energy on the demand side. , To take energy storage into account, and then realize the analysis and calculation of overall system optimization. In the next step, it is necessary to identify the different types of users on the demand side, which users can use how much green electricity, how to use electricity according to the load curve of renewable energy such as wind and solar after installing various energy storage technologies, and the corresponding potential Find out how big and other key issues are. Only by identifying this kind of potential can the energy transition be implemented step by step along this path. 2. What impact will the energy transition have on the energy economy of the whole society? How to coordinate the relationship between energy transition development and economic affordability? Energy transition must consider the economic cost, otherwise the entire national economy will be unbearable, and the economic issues of the energy transition must be particularly grasped in the planning. To promote the energy transition and build an integrated energy system, we must grasp the following points: first, to continuously improve the efficiency of energy use, and to continuously improve the efficiency of various end users and various energy use; second, to enable end users The cost of energy consumption is continuously reduced, and the economic efficiency of energy consumption is continuously improved; third, the negative impact of energy use, including production capacity, on the environment must be minimized, that is, emission reduction; fourth, the energy structure must be continuously low-carbon , Let the proportion of renewable energy continue to increase; finally, we must ensure the reliability of energy use. Therefore, the relationship between energy transition and energy use, and the relationship between the people and the economy is actually that the goals of these five aspects are well coordinated, especially the reduction of energy cost. It is absolutely necessary to consider the economic cost of clean energy or The proportion of renewable energy has increased. So we must coordinate the goals in these five areas. 3. The direction of smart energy system construction and the focus of the "14th Five-Year Plan". First, the direction of smart energy system construction focuses on the demand side and the energy consumption side. Second, it is necessary to use information technology as the support, including cloud, big things, mobile intelligence, blockchain, etc., to support the construction of smart energy systems. Third, the smart energy system must be integrated energy, not a single energy source, that is, a system that includes electric, hot, and cold air. In addition, the construction of this system first needs to consider planning, not just focusing on operation and scheduling. The complementarity of the integrated energy system, the greatest benefit appears at the system planning level. If the system has not handled properly the various capacity configurations and important structures at the planning level, and then optimize the scheduling at the operational stage, the space for optimization is very small. Therefore, the most important thing for the smart energy system is to seriously consider the integration of multiple energy sources such as the supply side and the demand side in the "14th Five-Year" energy plan, and use the cloud technology to support the improvement of energy efficiency and reliability. , Coordination of the five goals of energy cost reduction, carbon emissions and pollutant reduction.
03 Regarding energy consumption and related policies 1. What new characteristics will appear in the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan? How can traditional industries and emerging industries drive the growth of energy demand during the 14th Five-Year Plan? The energy consumption of the "14th Five-Year Plan" will pay more attention to the complementary utilization of multiple energy sources, thereby improving energy efficiency, reducing carbon emissions and energy costs, and market-oriented energy transactions and consumption behavior will continue to increase. At the same time, users will respond to energy demand. Capacity will continue to improve, and the relationship between energy consumption and the economy under these factors will be very different from before. In the past, energy consumption was basically rigid, and energy consumption can be basically judged based on the amount of economic growth, growth pattern, and growth rate. The "14th Five-Year" economic growth or the relationship between the electricity demand of various users and the economy is not the relationship between the "13th Five-Year" and before. It is necessary to carefully study the influence of various factors on the needs of various energy users. Only in this way can the planning be made more accurate and can be implemented. 2. Policy recommendations for the "14th Five-Year Plan" to improve the "dual control" of total energy consumption and intensity and the coal consumption control system in key areas, how to design flexible consumption totals for areas where energy consumption intensity meets standards and economic development is rapid Quantity control system? For key pollution prevention areas, should the total coal consumption or the bulk coal consumption be controlled? Suggestions on measures to deal with the possible risks of large-scale dependence on external energy. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, each province should not be rigidly given dual control indicators. The economic development is unpredictable and there are many fluctuation factors. If the dual control indicators are directly used, the actual implementation effect may not be very good. In some places, the economy develops faster, some places high energy consumption, or has a lot of negative impact on the environment, or there is a shortage of external resources, etc. Therefore, setting development indicators cannot be rigid and cannot be one size fits all. The setting of control indicators should consider the five goals of "two highs and three lows" for the development of the energy system, and consider the characteristics of different regions to solve the key problems facing energy development in different regions. The five goals have their own focus. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, for energy efficiency goals, "dual control" should give more consideration to energy efficiency. If energy efficiency is high, more use is allowed. If energy efficiency is low, total control is required to improve energy efficiency. The second goal is cost. It is an economic issue. If energy costs are high, it is necessary to improve energy efficiency through various services and technological advances, and reduce energy costs for users. Environmental pollution also depends on the environmental tolerance of each region. Decided. Therefore, the "dual control" indicators need to be adjusted in different regions, and then the intermediate process control should be adjusted accordingly. 3. How is the priority strategy of conservation reflected in energy planning, and what are the specific starting points? Any suggestions for specific measures to strengthen demand side management? Prioritizing conservation is prioritizing energy conservation, which is an important consideration in the 14th Five-Year Plan. Saving refers to the reduction of the intensity of energy consumption per unit, that is, the energy consumption per unit of national economic output, not the total amount. High efficiency should be encouraged to use more energy, while low efficiency should be restricted. In the entire plan, energy efficiency is the top priority. Therefore, in terms of energy efficiency, especially on the demand side of various users in the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, demand response resource planning should be carried out and coordinated with supply side resources. To achieve comprehensive resource planning, that is, to consider the demand-side resources and supply-side resources as a whole, the "14th Five-Year" energy plan should be done in accordance with the comprehensive resource planning model.
04 Regarding energy supply and safety guarantee 1. In light of the characteristics of my country's energy consumption and resources, and the characteristics of the "14th Five-Year" energy development phase, what kind of energy security concept should be established? The concept of energy security should have several connotations. First, the concept of energy security in a narrow sense refers to the supply of oil and gas, and the security of importing energy from the world. Second, the broad concept of energy security is to consider the mining, transportation, and use of various energy sources on a narrow basis, and to coordinate the negative impact on the environment, which is also an energy security issue. In addition, it is necessary to consider some of the safety of the system, especially the operational safety of the power system, when the energy supply and demand is emergency. The safety of the power system is now also attached great importance. In the world, due to wars, the power system has also been destroyed. This is also a security issue. There is the security of the power development environment, the physical security of the power system, and the international political background of oil and gas imports. These are all things that need to be considered. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the security of the power system must seriously consider the close integration of centralized power generation, long-distance transmission, distributed power generation, and local consumption. The combination of centralized and distributed, long-distance The combination of transportation and local consumption is the only way to support energy security. 2. What features should be highlighted in the "14th Five-Year" energy supply guarantee plan? Energy supply guarantee means to consider the coordination between centralized and distributed. It is necessary to consider how the proportion of oil and gas will be gradually reduced, and how the proportion of renewable energy and new energy will be increased. In the planning, it must be considered on an annual basis, as well as environmental protection. influences. In addition, energy storage needs to be considered. Technical breakthroughs, cost innovations, and market transactions in energy storage all need to be considered. These are important measures to ensure the safety of energy supply, and at the same time, the resources on the demand side must be considered so that users can adjust their energy use methods. 3. How to judge the impact of factors such as the continuous expansion of the petrochemical industry scale, the export of refined oil and petrochemical products, and the rising scale of crude oil imports on energy security? Any suggestions for related industrial policies? How to scientifically evaluate the relationship between my country's coal resource development potential and medium- and long-term coal consumption, that is, based on the current scale and structure of coal consumption, can the proven resource reserves meet future coal demand? What are the shortcomings in energy reserves and emergency capacity building, and how should they be supplemented during the 14th Five-Year Plan? How to channel the cost of system reserves and emergency capacity building? Regarding the coal issue, during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, there should be no problem comparing the demand for coal with the supply capacity of coal. The key is to consider the environmental problems caused by coal consumption. From the perspective of power generation, coal burning is strictly restricted. . However, in the future "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the most basic power safety supply and system guarantee operation will depend on thermal power. In addition, coal power must be considered for peak shaving of renewable energy. Regarding the issue of reserves, the main consideration is the reserves of oil and gas. According to the judgment of the international situation, how oil and gas need to be stored and what risks are in price must be considered from the overall energy supply. It is a comprehensive energy that can complement each other. It is necessary to consider the gradual reduction of oil and gas To a certain ratio, there is no longer a big international risk. It is necessary to rely on comprehensive energy planning to gradually replace part of it to reduce the proportion of oil and gas to ensure oil and gas safety. With regard to the use of oil, the largest user is the automobile, which promotes the substitution of energy for automobiles, such as electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel vehicles, which must be considered in the energy consumption planning on the energy demand side. Energy planning must consider the substitution and complementarity of multiple energy sources, and put various energy sources in a system to coordinate and optimize considerations. The safety of oil and gas, how to use coal in the future, and how to develop it should all be considered under the larger framework.
05 About energy technology progress and system reform 1. What new technologies are expected to make substantial progress during the "14th Five-Year Plan"? What specific impact will it have on energy development? In general, some of the technologies related to the Energy Internet will make major breakthroughs. According to the major national special projects in the energy field issued by the Ministry of Science and Technology in recent years, it is predicted that some of the technologies closely related to the Energy Internet will be There are major breakthroughs, and these technological breakthroughs will accelerate the realization of the Energy Internet, and the physical nature of the Energy Internet is an integrated energy system. A series of cyber-physical technologies such as flexible DC, energy routers, and various technologies supported by information platforms will break through during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. At present, the Ministry of Science and Technology has already deployed these technologies and has done some Pilot and demonstration projects. 2. What are the institutional mechanisms and price mechanism barriers that restrict energy transition reforms that must be resolved during the 14th Five-Year Plan period? What are the specific reform measures? During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, in order to make breakthroughs in the energy system reform, it must rely on the market to gradually form a comprehensive energy market that integrates multiple energy markets such as heat market, power market, and natural gas market. However, there are still institutional problems and mechanisms. problem. At the same time, to complete the market system, various ancillary service markets must be considered. For the electricity itself, it is necessary to consider a variety of auxiliary service markets and the electric energy market to support it, so that it is a complete market. In addition, the current electricity market is mainly a traditional market, dominated by coal power, and how to enter the market for renewable energy, energy storage, and demand-side response needs to be carefully considered. These are important tasks in market construction.
06 Regarding planning connection 1. What are the focus of the energy plan in the 14th Five-Year Plan to promote coordinated regional development, rural revitalization, and new urbanization? 2. Ecological environmental protection, land space, water resources and other factors have an impact on energy development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. In what ways should we strengthen overall coordination? Energy planning and regional planning are closely related. Energy planning should be integrated into the entire regional planning. Energy is the most important issue to be considered in regional planning, including energy production, transmission, use, and management. Energy planning must communicate and share information with other plans in a timely manner. It is necessary to strengthen coordination, coordinate multiple times, and repeatedly coordinate. The "14th Five-Year Plan" must make great efforts to coordinate. For the five goals of "two highs and three lows", the two "highs" refer to the improvement of comprehensive energy efficiency and the improvement of comprehensive energy reliability. The three "low" refers to the reduction of the overall operating cost of the integrated energy system, the reduction of carbon emissions and the reduction of pollutant emissions. These five goals should be consistent with the urban planning goals of the local government, such as the architectural planning of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, professional planning, environmental planning, land planning, water resources and other planning of various regions, put forward their respective goals, and carry out overall coordination of various goals. After the overall coordination is complete, the goals will be decomposed, energy planning will be done, town planning will be done, etc., so that they can be better coordinated. The intermediate process must have coordinated mechanisms and coordinated indicators. Some of them must also be quantitative, capable of analysis, calculation, and simulation, so that they can be truly implemented.
